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Weekly Update 27 March 2020

Remember how your grandparents told you about what life was like in the Depression? You're going to have your own stories to tell.

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Asteroid Impact

Three asteroids are approaching earth, and all three will intersect our planet's orbit tomorrow. None will impact, though.

There's apparently a conspiracy theory out there that COVID-19 was created by the global elites to distract us from a doomsday asteroid impacting the earth in April. That's not true.

Civil Unrest

Another coronavirus-related prison riot this week, in Colombia this time. At least twenty-five inmates died. Bogata is now considering releasing some prisoners.

Both history and human psychology suggest more civil unrest is likely the longer lockdowns continue.

Intelligent Prepper Comment: Stay home, don't riot.

EMP

One year after President Trump issued his Executive Order on Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses, there are still o FERC approved standards.

Epidemic Disease

Confirmed Cases - 553,244 (+ 100% since last week)
Deaths - 25,035 (+ 150% since last week)


America has taken over as the country with the most confirmed COVID-19 cases with 86k.

Italy has the most confirmed deaths with 8,215, but America will overtake them within a week or so.

Expect 10,000 American deaths by the time you get next week's update.

New York State is the most infected place in the world on a per capita basis.

‚ÄčThat's about all we're going to say on the health aspect of coronavirus. We've gone into quite a bit of detail around the economic ramifications below.

Intelligent Prepper Comment: I's awful, people are dying, and it's going to get much much worse before it gets better, especially if you don't Stay the F home.

Extreme Weather

Severe weather alerts in both Detroit and Chicago this weekend. More good reasons to stay the F home.

Financial Collapse

The consensus among mainstream financial experts this week has finally moved beyond recession and toward depression. We predicted as much two weeks ago.
Intelligent Prepper Comment: There are lots of reasons why this time is different. Every recession we've previously endured has had one or two causes with one or two problems.

This time we have:
  • Health crisis - the pandemic itself
  • Labor crisis - lockdowns mean no one is working
  • Supply crisis - supply chains are shut because China was hit first and factories are being repurposed
  • Demand crisis - no one shops when they're unemployed or they're uncertain. No one goes out when they're in lockdown.
  • Credit crisis - lending has stopped
  • Credit crisis 2 - consumer debt is at record levels, and it's only a matter of time before the labor crisis leads to defaults
If this pandemic is kicked to the curb by the end of spring -- successful treatments are discovered, countries that effectively locked down can come out of hiding, or coronavirus hates warm weather, we can avoid the above. We'll only have a major global recession.

The key thing to remember, though, is that there's not a unified global approach or response. No two countries are dealing with the health crisis the same way. In fact, in the US, no two states are dealing with it the same way.

So some countries and states will come out of hibernation sooner than others.

Some will come out too soon.

Some will lose a small percentage of their population while others lose up to 3% to 5% of it.

This crisis is different from anything else we've ever seen for another reason. It's sudden and total. Even the great depression took three years to fully work its way through the economy. American unemployment claims increased 300x in one week.

Leaders that dither will doom their people to a deep recession. Decisive governments will come out of this relatively strong.

More on this next week, but Spoiler Alert - America is in real trouble.

Carter Hopkins

Carter is a former US Army Ranger, US Army intelligence officer, and counterintelligence officer with the Defence Intelligence Agency. He has a BA in Political Science from UCLA and an MA in Security Studies from Georgetown.

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